Saturday, December 31, 2011

Predictions for 2012

This is my third year making predictions. What I have learned from previous years is that the future is difficult to predict. I try to be as specific as possible, and hopefully entertaining.
I will re-use some predictions that were ahead of their time.

I called 2011 the "Year of the Hollow Victory". It just looked to me that so many public figures were waging battle that they may be missing the war. The microscope the media places on everything takes some getting use to seeing. The fact of the matter is that some media reports are informational, some news, and some simply wrong. Not every report deserves a full measure of rebuke.

2012 will be the year of people looking back at 2011 and 2012 becoming the Year of Buyer's Remorse

Here we go:
Obama wins re-election.
The Republican splinter is a fissure. A Republican will run as an "Independent". When the circus music stops, and some selfish book whore has sunk his (or her) party's hopes, it will leave some of the far Right on an every shrinking island.

Seattle Mayor Mike McGinn will lose the 2013 election in 2012.
I know it looks like it is already over, but he still has parts of a fragile coelition that he has yet to break apart. He's got a basketball Jones, but doing the right thing for the right reasons isn't good enough for the rabid sports haters that have pooled up as one of McGinn's groups of support.

Initiative 502 will pass, legalizing marijuana at the state level.

Smoking in public places of medicinal marijuana will ironically be against the law.

A rerun from 2011: 1.b. Congressional Democrats will champion state's rights [for marijuana use].

Another rerun from 2011: 5. The state will grant counties the power and authority to raise taxes to pay for transit by popular vote, adding an increase to the Motor Vehicle Excise Tax limit, and property tax limit, counties and cities could use.

The Sacramento Kings will make plans to relocate to Washington State (no insider info here, just a straight prediction), prompting another team to beat hem to the market.

A third option, not Key Arena, will emerge as another multi-purpose arena location (again, no insider info here, just a prediction). This is a real estate problem.

Rob McKenna will be elected Governor of the State of Washington, and will instantly disappoint the Republican Party with his first proposed budget.

Bob Ferguson will win the race to be Washington State's Attourney General.

People living in Medina, Washington, will refer to the people living in Bellevue, Washington's 9th Congressional District as living in "District 9".

Dow Constantine will be the front runner to replace Rob McKenna as 2012 comes to a close.

Suzan DelBene will be elected to congress in the 1st Congressional District.

The color for 2012 will be a very dark green, almost black.

And now a little music, The Walkmen, In the New Year


hughc5 said...

So your thinkin that we'll get a team back this year but the sodo aren isnt gonna happen it will somwhere else? Sign me up sounds good

hughc5 said...

I dont care where they build it just build and get them back

Peter said...

right now seattle and bellevue are the 2 options. if there is a third, where would it be? i guess renton could be an option, and tacoma and bothell have commissioned studies looking into an arena. i think BR is right about percy. this has becomed a real estate issue, and a sports reporter isn't the best one to cover real estate or business. the times itself and news outlets would cover that better. i tweeted chris daniels about the percy comments but he hasen't replied yet. i'll let everyone know if he does.

Peter said...

any predictions on the athlete fee? i hope it passes, but i am not sure. anything could happen.

Mr Baker said...

Not Renton.

Mr Baker said...

No prediction on the athlete fee.

Peter said...

I hope it isnt true that this sodo arena will ask for city money. If McGinn is really working to help with financing,this could get ugly fast. Arena digest reported that it was privately financed. I hope that is the case. At least go for a new creative source like athlete fee or user fees.the good part about having 2 efforts is that the most viable one will likely win. I don't think any funding from the gen fund is even possible, mainly because the stadium taxes are dead and are basically impossible to extend now and I think i91 would kill any city funding. Fingers crossed both of these groups will come together if need be so we won't even need athlete fees.

Mr Baker said...

The difference between asking for help "funding" or help "financing" may be a distinction not completely understood yet.

Peter said...

Chris daniels tweeted this back to me: "we'll see. Complicated issue." I asked him about Percy's comments, when he said an arena wouldn't be announced within the next yr.

hughc5 said...

Well..... we'll see is better than no or no way or even i doubt it. If i had to bet i would say 50/50 shot it happens. Maybe

bmac said...

i disagree, it will definetely happen,only question is when.

Peter said...

What do you think levin means by "cities need to step up? " do you think it is as someone said on sc that he is expecting public money, or do you think they need help with eminant domain and facilitating? I really hope they are not expecting public funds. At the very least I hope they are working for the athlete fee and user fees.

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