Thursday, December 27, 2012

Predictions 2013

This is my fourth year making predictions. What I have learned from previous years is that the future is difficult to predict. I try to be as specific as possible, and hopefully entertaining.
I will re-use some predictions that were ahead of their time.

I called 2012 the "Year of Buyer's Remorse". It just looked to me that a few public figures were waging battle that they may be missing why the became public figures to begin with. I got 6 of 11 actual predictions correct.

2013 will be the year of people looking back at 2012 growing tired of opponents of losing campaigns still arguing as if they had not lost. the I'm calling 2013 the Year of Moving On.

Here we go:

#1 - Re-run from 2012 (some things take longer than a year to happen): Seattle Mayor Mike McGinn will lose the 2013 election in 2012.
As I said in 2012 - I know it looks like it is already over, but he still has parts of a fragile coelition that he has yet to break apart. He's got a basketball Jones, but doing the right thing for the right reasons isn't good enough for the rabid sports haters that have pooled up as one of McGinn's groups of support.

And here is why...

#2 - Peter Steinbrueck will strip enough of McGinn's lesser Seattle and rabid sports haters to sink both their hopes to make it past the Seattle mayoral primary election. At this point, Steinbrueck is saying that he is running for mayor, but the sad truth is that this is just a further extension of his lobbying activity for the Port of Seattle.

This is Peter Steinbrueck doing his version of Mike McGinn's 2009 anti-tunnel rhetoric:
Steinbrueck, who was paid by the Port of Seattle to oppose the deal—which has now been endorsed by both the City Council and the King County Council—said he would "honor the process," but indicated that he would use the process to explore better locations. - Publicola, And Steinbrueck Makes Six
Seriously, 2013 is the Year of Moving On. You lost the 2013 election when you didn't run in 2009.

#3 - Seattle will elect Ed Murray as Mayor of Seattle

So, why does Ed Murray win? Because it's the Year of Moving On.
"I’m not here to run against Mike McGinn or any particular candidate; I’m running because there are too many internal pissing matches in politics in Seattle," Murray said. "I think that our styles are very different. That’s one of the reasons I’m running." - Publicola, Ed Murray's Running for Mayor

#4 - not a prediction, but a thought people should consider, Tim Burgess should be the Chief of Police in Seattle.

#5 - The Washington State Senate Republicans majority discovers the most difficult opposition to overcome is from House Republicans.

Another rerun from 2011:
#6 - State Legislature will grant counties the power and authority to raise taxes to pay for transit by popular vote, adding an increase to the Motor Vehicle Excise Tax limit, and property tax limit, counties and cities could use.

#7 - State Legislature will grant counties the power and authority to raise taxes for health and human services.

#8 - Rural health districts will have a near-death experience (see #5).

#9 - A NBA franchise will be identified as the new Super Sonics (no insider info here, just a straight prediction).

The color for 2013 will be a saffron gold color.