Monday, November 2, 2009

KING5/SurveyUSA Election Poll #16015: Mallahan 45, McGinn 43

I predict: Mallahan 51%, McGinn 48%, 1% other.

Here is the current KING5/ poll. Joe Mallahan 45, Mike McGinn 43, 12 undecided.

Can Joe Mallahan get 5 of the 12% that is left? Yes, that is possible.
Can Mike McGinn get 7 of the 12% that is left? Yes, that is possible.
Margin of error was 4.1%

McGinn has closed ground on Mallahan, but the question is if McGinn can get over 49.9% while opposing the tunnel.
It is possible, though I do not think so. I think the ceiling for the anti-tunnel candidate is 48%.

Have a great day,
Mike Baker

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Peter said...

i read seattle weekly that only one set of ballots have been counted, with mcginn barely ahead. just curious, how much percent of the ballots were in?

Mr Baker said...

89,132 ballots have been counted.

44,918 ballots have not been counted.

About half of the uncounted will be done today, at 4:30, leaving another 20,000 still to be counted.
Depending on what happens today, we might not have a known winner until tomorrow.

Here is the link to the county site where totals are published.

Mr Baker said...

Update, now closer
49.77 mcginn
49.33 mallahan

another update tomorrow

Mr Baker said...

515 votes are the difference.
McGinn gained 50 votes from last count.

We are not going to know until monday, likely.


Mike McGinn 65172 49.78%

Joe Mallahan 64657 49.38%

Write-in 1100 0.84%

Mr Baker said...

McGinn now has a .8 gap. Another update will be at 10pm today.
That is a sizable jump, though if it can jump one way, then it can jump the other. The question is: how many votes are left to be counted?
Btw, the write in total is greater than the difference between the top two candidates.

Mike McGinn 75657 49.99%

Joe Mallahan 74448 49.19%

Write-in 1240 0.82%

Mr Baker said...

New numbers, McGinn is pulling away.
So, it is now more likely that the reasons I voted for Mallahan, and against McGinn l, will come true.
Two yours of McGinn fighting while he gets run over by the council.
Not a very productive situation.

Mike McGinn 85416 50.31%

Joe Mallahan 83032 48.91%

Write-in 1328 0.78%

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