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Predictions 2013

This is my fourth year making predictions. What I have learned from previous years is that the future is difficult to predict. I try to be as specific as possible, and hopefully entertaining.
I will re-use some predictions that were ahead of their time.

I called 2012 the "Year of Buyer's Remorse". It just looked to me that a few public figures were waging battle that they may be missing why the became public figures to begin with. I got 6 of 11 actual predictions correct.

2013 will be the year of people looking back at 2012 growing tired of opponents of losing campaigns still arguing as if they had not lost. the I'm calling 2013 the Year of Moving On.

Here we go:

#1 - Re-run from 2012 (some things take longer than a year to happen): Seattle Mayor Mike McGinn will lose the 2013 election in 2012.
As I said in 2012 - I know it looks like it is already over, but he still has parts of a fragile coelition that he has yet to break apart. He's got a basketball Jones, but doing the right thing for the right reasons isn't good enough for the rabid sports haters that have pooled up as one of McGinn's groups of support.

And here is why...

#2 - Peter Steinbrueck will strip enough of McGinn's lesser Seattle and rabid sports haters to sink both their hopes to make it past the Seattle mayoral primary election. At this point, Steinbrueck is saying that he is running for mayor, but the sad truth is that this is just a further extension of his lobbying activity for the Port of Seattle.

This is Peter Steinbrueck doing his version of Mike McGinn's 2009 anti-tunnel rhetoric:
Steinbrueck, who was paid by the Port of Seattle to oppose the deal—which has now been endorsed by both the City Council and the King County Council—said he would "honor the process," but indicated that he would use the process to explore better locations. - Publicola, And Steinbrueck Makes Six
Seriously, 2013 is the Year of Moving On. You lost the 2013 election when you didn't run in 2009.

#3 - Seattle will elect Ed Murray as Mayor of Seattle

So, why does Ed Murray win? Because it's the Year of Moving On.

"I’m not here to run against Mike McGinn or any particular candidate; I’m running because there are too many internal pissing matches in politics in Seattle," Murray said. "I think that our styles are very different. That’s one of the reasons I’m running." - Publicola, Ed Murray's Running for Mayor

#4 - not a prediction, but a thought people should consider, Tim Burgess should be the Chief of Police in Seattle.

#5 - The Washington State Senate Republicans majority discovers the most difficult opposition to overcome is from House Republicans.

Another rerun from 2011:
#6 - State Legislature will grant counties the power and authority to raise taxes to pay for transit by popular vote, adding an increase to the Motor Vehicle Excise Tax limit, and property tax limit, counties and cities could use.

#7 - State Legislature will grant counties the power and authority to raise taxes for health and human services.

#8 - Rural health districts will have a near-death experience (see #5).

#9 - A NBA franchise will be identified as the new Super Sonics (no insider info here, just a straight prediction).


The color for 2013 will be a saffron gold color.

Time to move?

National Rifle Association CEO Wayne LaPierre plan to make schools in the US safer ends on star date 5730.2

The rest of us should go ahead and grab a towel and move to a planet circling Tau Ceti. It's 4.3 the mass of earth, so, it might have extra bathrooms.

Fuck it, let's move.

Endorsements | Peter Steinbrueck for Seattle Mayor - (aka the "shit list")

Hey, look who endorsed that political whore Peter Steinbrueck, it's the Nick Licata.

Sonics fan shit list

When is Brian Robinson going to stop turning the other cheek with Nick Licata?

Seriously, Brian, I don't want to hear how he "listened" to you. Who cares if he "listened" to you, what did he do? He has worked against you, and still is.

Nick, are you listening?

Don't you think Nick looks tired?

Lobbyist whore: Peter Steinbrueck Is Running for Mayor

As long as he can stuff his pockets with lobbying money and trade off the corpse of his father then he's got a shot and going head to head for a battle for third place with McGinn.

Electing city council by districts, like the county does, would be more democratic. I like democracy, we should try it, rather than this coalition of neighborhood breakfast clubs bullshit. This is a city, lets try acting like it.

There is no yesteryear nostalgia here. He has been paid to run by lobbyist money, it's his job.

Another hurdle for Steinbrueck is being branded with the "L" word—not a lesbian, but a lobbyist. He contends that his lobbying positions are consistent with his personal convictions. "I do some lobbying, but it's a tiny part of what I do," he explains. Steinbrueck has done work recently on behalf of the Port of Seattle to oppose the arena in Sodo.

And he is paid lobbyist for:

In addition, Steinbrueck has recently taken work with the Washington State Department of Transportation (as a historic architect for settlement issues along the deep-bore tunnel alignment), the Pike Place Market Preservation & Development Authority (for waterfront design), a University District group (advocating that the future light rail station have a park atop of it instead of a building), and Virginia Mason Medical Center (helping with its land-use planning). And finally, he's working on behalf of the South Lake Union Community Coalition, which is lobbying the city to restrict a proposal for 400-foot towers in South Lake Union.

Peter Steinbrueck Is Running for Mayor by Dominic Holden - Seattle Features - The Stranger, Seattle's Only Newspaper

He's battling for third place with McGinn. Tim Burgess will lock up the opposing side to McGinn on the Seattle Police Department to take second, and Ed Murray is leading them all in fund raising and political skill.

Btw, the doubters about the power of pissed off basketball fans might want to ask Greg Nickles how many of those votes he lost on his way to losing the primary to two nobodies.
In the 2013 primary, with this many people running, every niche group matters, including the thousands of basketball fans.

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Op-ed: Don’t call the state Senate’s Majority Coalition Caucus bipartisan | Opinion | The Seattle Times

The Seattle Times gets corrected.

The Seattle Times editorial page applauded the move as a necessary check against the Democratic House and governor [“State coalition caucus a promising change,” Opinion, Dec. 12]. This argument looks flimsy after Washington voters overwhelmingly selected Democrats for president, senator, a majority of our congressional delegation, governor, all statewide offices except one, and majorities in the state House and Senate.

The fact is, though, the public expects us to work together to move the state forward, no matter who is in charge. This is especially true in the Senate, a diverse body with an unstable balancing point that shifts from issue to issue. After the election, majority Democrats knew that the Senate would descend into dysfunction if we tried to govern with a strict 25-vote strategy, the bare minimum number of votes necessary. We knew we needed to work from a much broader base, 30 to 35 votes. So we proposed a more-inclusive, less-partisan organizing model than has ever existed before, including a bipartisan education finance committee, and invited dialogue with Republicans about our proposal.
. . .
A strict 25-senator majority changing longstanding Senate rules to consolidate their hold on power will surely invite mischief and abuse in the future, and create unintended negative consequences for the public.

You could call that many things. Just don’t call it bipartisan.

http://seattletimes.com/html/opinion/2019906678_edmurrayopedxml.html


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Editorial: Majority coalition caucus in state Senate is a welcome change | Editorials | The Seattle Times

Seattle Times, fuck you.

http://seattletimes.com/html/editorials/2019884138_edit12washingtonsenatecoupxml.html


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Seattle Times: 2 Dems join GOP in state Senate ‘coup,’ say parties will split power

Kick Rodney Tom and Tim Sheldon out of the Democratic Caucus, let the Republicans come up with their partisan budget in the Senate, the Dems in the House, reconcile the two budgets in the inevitable Special Session.

Two conservative Democratic state senators announced today they will join with Senate Republicans to form a “majority coalition caucus” in which they say power will more or less be split between the two parties.

The coup, which has been rumored since Republicans gained a seat in the Senate in last month’s election, would install one of the conservative Democrats, former Republican Rodney Tom of Bellevue, as the body’s majority leader and the other, Tim Sheldon of Potlach, as the president pro tempore.

Seattle Times: 2 Dems join GOP in state Senate ‘coup,’ say parties will split power


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Seattle Times: Legislature's Ed Murray wants to run for Seattle mayor

Ed Murray officially becomes one of the top 3 mayoral candidates.

That's the race right there, Murray, Burgess, McGinn, in that order.

Between the two candidates not McGinn, Murray and Burgess, Murray is most likely going to be able to pull supporters from McGinn. That's Murray's advantage.

In an interview earlier this week, Murray said he plans to reach out during the next few months to neighborhood groups, as well as business and civic leaders to gauge support. "Do I think a good number of people will come and help and support, yes, but, man, I cannot take it for granted," Murray said. "Burgess is a solid council member. McGinn is the last person I would write off. This is the guy who defeated an incumbent mayor. I have some work to do before I can have a full campaign for mayor."
It's not like Murray would be starting from scratch or suffers from a lack of name recognition, given the high-profile issues he's been in the middle of, including transportation and gay marriage.

http://seattletimes.com/html/politics/2019835634_murray06m.html


Have a great day,
Mike Baker

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Sen. DeMint resigning to head conservative group | Politics | The Seattle Times

A rat leaves a sinking ship.

DeMint's positions have earned him rankings as one of the most conservative senators. He supported partially privatizing Social Security and installing a flat sales tax to replace income taxes. He once suggested that gays and unwed pregnant women should not teach in public schools.

http://seattletimes.com/html/nationworld/2019844731_apusdemintresigns.html

Tim Burgess Is Running for Mayor by Dominic Holden - Seattle News - The Stranger, Seattle's Only Newspaper

This sums it up:

“I like Tim,” Council Member Tom Rasmussen told The Stranger earlier this year. “He does his homework… He would make a good mayor.”

True. Tim Burgess will be painted as "conservative", which he is. In contrast to McGinn, that's likely going to be a positive attribute.

Good luck to you, Tim.
Free advice, not everybody will like all of your policies, but an electable majority will like who you are. Be yourself.

Tim Burgess Is Running for Mayor by Dominic Holden - Seattle News - The Stranger, Seattle's Only Newspaper


Have a great day,
Mike Baker

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From POLITICO - Kyl: Blame the media for the do-nothing Congress

Jon Kyl is a fucking moron.

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Kyl: Blame the media for the do-nothing Congress

By JUANA SUMMERS | 11/25/2012 10:34 AM EST

Reporters are partially to blame for the dismal job approval ratings of Congress, Sen. Jon Kyl (R-Ariz.) says, attributing some of the gridlock and hyper-partisanship on the Hill to the 24-hour news cycle. 'For one thing, the media now have a lot of time …

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From POLITICO - GOP warns of shutdown over filibuster

The Senate is broken, and here is why:

Republicans say eliminating filibusters - even on a piecemeal basis - will undermine the fundamental underpinnings of the Senate as a body designed to operate on consensus and protect the minority party, making the body run like the House, where the majority rules with an iron fist.

See, they have it all wrong. The Senate was designed to protect the minority of the population by giving each state, regardless of population, two senators.
It wasn't designed to protect a minority of senators.

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GOP warns of shutdown over filibuster

By MANU RAJU | 11/25/2012 01:02 PM EST

A partisan war is brewing that could bring the government to a screeching halt as early as January - and no, it's not over the fiscal cliff. It's all about the filibuster. Democrats are threatening to change filibuster rules, in what will surely prompt a f…

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The Seattle Times: McGinn missteps beckon crowd of potential rivals

It's the early list of potential mayoral candidates for Seattle.

Among the possible candidates are: state Sen. Ed Murray; three current or former City Council members, Tim Burgess, Bruce Harrell and Peter Steinbrueck; former County Executive Ron Sims; commercial real-estate broker Charlie Staadecker; business owner and engineering project manager Albert Shen; Republican Port Commissioner Bill Bryant; and perhaps the most experienced of all, the former mayor of both Bellevue and Bremerton, Cary Bozeman.

The Seattle Times: McGinn missteps beckon crowd of potential rivals

Here is my preliminary ranking, some folks are unfamiliar to me right now.

1. Ed Murray, state Senator,
2. Tim Burgess, current City Council member,
3. Bruce Harrell, current City Council member,
4. Ron Sims, former County Executive
5 (a tie of unknowns to me). Charlie Staadecker, commercial real-estate broker,
5. Albert Shen; business owner and engineering project manager.

Finally, a parade of jackasses in no particular order:
Bill Bryant, Republican Port Commissioner (the court case the Longshoreman's Union has against the city's arena efforts will drag this gasbag into the light of public examination during the discovery phase in a way that might cost him his current job).
Cary Bozeman, the former mayor of both Bellevue and Bremerton (the fact that the Seattle Times gives this person any kind of consideration with occasional news stories, quotes, and opinion pieces, should be a giant red flag right there).
Peter Steinbrueck, former City Council member (see Bill Bryant, see also his NASCAR-like lobbying business. He's an entitled brat and a tool.).

Where does Mike McGinn fit in all this?
One of the top 6 will emerge as the top contender and frontrunner. this will comprise 1/3 of the primary poll (it's Ed Murray's to lose).

McGinn is1/3 of the primary contenders.

The group of jackasses at the end will get enough in-kind contributions parading as "news" from the Seattle Times to AstroTurf one of them to the level of "also ran" status, the final 1/3.

That's what it looks like.

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Mike Baker

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The Seattle Times: Some Texans want to divorce U.S.

And all this time I was trying to figure out how to get them to leave. It turns out they want to leave on their own. Win-win.

Sales of bumper stickers reading "Secede" — one for $2, or three for $5 — have increased atTexasSecede.com. In East Texas, a Republican official sent an email newsletter saying it was time for Texas and Vermont to each "go her own way in peace" and sign a free-trade agreement among the states.

http://seattletimes.com/html/nationworld/2019752225_texascede24.html